Donald Trump is currently battling a wide range of administrative issues. His current priority is to be robust in the US economic aspects, and for that to happen, Trump has already proposed an international tariff strategy, the one that can help the US gain the upper hand and help make the US economy prosper in the long run. However, on a larger scale, Trump would need another policy hack, a simplification tool to solve a plethora of US economic woes, including quelling the fears of stagflation and inflation. As many great patrons have said, the complete way out always includes a crash first. Will the US consider the possibility of recession to end its economic woes at once? One portal thinks so.
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Does Trump Want a Recession?
Recession is always described as a temporary economic decline, a period of low productivity, as trade and economic activities are reduced during the time. The US’s tariff regimens have posed risks of uncertainty for the domain. A slight increase in inflation metrics alongside a spike in unemployment is also posing a threat to the US economy. However, JP Morgan has earlier quelled such fears, adding how the chances of us entering into a recession are below 50% now, citing the de-escalation of tariff orders as the main factor driving the change.
However, per the latest analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, on the contrary, a recession would ultimately end up solving the majority of Trump’s economic hurdles.
The portal took to X to share a detailed report, adding how a recession is capable of solving the US economic deficits, helping Trump achieve all his economic goals at once.
“In a way, President Trump may actually ‘want” a recession. A recession achieves MOST of Trump’s economic goals at once. 1. Lower US inflation. 2. Lower treasury yields. 3. Lower trade deficit (through tariffs). 4. Fed interest rate cuts. 5. Lower oil prices. After the recent surge in Treasury yields, the Trump Administration has realized the trade deal headlines won’t work anymore. A recession may be the “best” solution after years of inflation and “free” money.
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In a way, President Trump may actually "want" a recession.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 21, 2025
A recession achieves MOST of Trump's economic goals at once:
1. Lower US inflation
2. Lower treasury yields
3. Lower trade deficit (through tariffs)
4. Fed interest rate cuts
5. Lower oil prices
After the recent surge… https://t.co/GUptlBM6si
A recession would help Trump achieve all his core desires at once. For instance, Trump has criticized higher costs and rising prices. A recession would help lower the prices, closing the gaps on the go.
A recession would also help the US in lowering treasury yields, balancing the US economy’s borrowing habits by making them cheaper and more accessible.
JP Morgan Predicts Stagflation Risk For The US
JP Morgan and Chase Chief Jamie Dimon has issued a stark stagflation warning for the US. In his recent interview with Bloomberg, Dimon shared how the US is at risk of stagflation as the nation battles risks from changing geopolitical narratives and price pressures.
“I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot.” Dimon shared.
Trump’s tariffs have spurred a global chain reaction, restricting companies from expanding their dominions and halting mergers to protect their stake. This development is sparking concerns regarding trade, inflation, and unemployment, which could lead the US towards stagflation.
“The unit “is both for us, and it’s also to educate clients,” Dimon said. “Clients ask us all the time, what should we do about this country? How do you look at risk?”
He further shared how the world is also exploring reduced investment in the US dollar-centric assets.
“I don’t worry about short-term fluctuations in the dollar,” Dimon said. “But I do understand people might be reducing dollar assets.”
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