The US Federal Reserve is no longer projected to raise interest rates at its September meeting, according to Polymarket odds tracking the Fed. This comes shortly after the US recorded its 3rd largest monthly job loss since 2020. Even as inflation continues to run rampant in the US economy, forecasters now believe that the Fed will hold off on moving rates for the sixth consecutive session.

Contrary to Polymarket forecasts, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said this past week that the Fed is prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation comes in higher than expected. Inflation in the US has been going down over the last few months, falling to 3.5% in June 2026. However, the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict led to a spike in oil prices last month. Higher oil prices often lead to higher CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures. To add fuel to the fire, President Trump’s recent tariff spree may also play a major role in driving up inflation figures.

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Investors will now be looking to the July inflation picture, set to be revealed in the Consumer Price Index report for the month on August 12. In June, prices posted their biggest month-over-month fall in six years as energy prices fell, though oil rose in July amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. If the labor market is weakening, that may change how the central bank thinks about rate hikes, which some members of the Fed have called for amid higher energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran war.