Gold price will drop fears are back in the headlines right now, after bullion fell below the $5,000 mark on Monday and has been struggling to recover since. The gold price today is sitting at around $4,985 per ounce — down nearly 1% on the day — and a lot of traders are genuinely asking whether the gold price will drop even further from here, or if this is just a short pause after last week’s sharp rally.

Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data triggered a 2.4% surge on Friday, which then pushed traders to take profits — driving the sudden gold price drop today. January’s CPI came in at just 0.2%, easing some of the fears around a bigger jump and also reinforcing the case for the Fed to cut rates. Why the sudden fall in gold price today, then? Mostly profit-taking, and also a thin market — China is out for Lunar New Year through February 23, leaving Asian trading unusually quiet.

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What’s Keeping Gold Under Pressure

Cautious sentiment ahead of the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva, also scheduled for this week, is adding to the pressure on gold right now. At the time of writing, spot gold was changing hands at $4,992, and MCX April gold at Rs 154,800 was down 0.70% for the day. The gold price will drop risk, in other words, is still very much alive right now.

Hebi Chen, analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne, stated:

“With China and parts of the broader Asian market on holiday, gold is likely to see weaker liquidity and a calmer tone in trading at the start of the week.”

Is There Still a Case for Recovery?

The issue of whether or not gold can go up or down is one that is actively discussed. As of February 13, ETF holdings were at 100.13 million, which is close to their last high in August 2022. registered inventory at COMEX has plummeted by over 27 per cent of its April 2024 high, and stood at 17.57 million ounces as of writing.

Both these are being monitored as an indication that bigger players are not yet giving up on the metal. The major banks outlooks on gold price forecasts 2026 are still positive. ANZ Group Holdings predicts that bullion in Q2 2026 will touch $5,800 per ounce, and resistance to a gold price drop narrative and a broader transition toward sovereign bonds.

Chen also noted:

“Structurally, the metal continues to show resilience, the macroeconomic backdrop has been strong but not disruptive, and technical support remains in place.”

Gold Will Rise or Fall — What Comes Next?

The gold price prediction 2026 picture remains split. Several banks are saying that the sudden fall in gold price today might actually be an opportunity — and some buyers, particularly in Dubai and India, are already stepping in ahead of Eid demand, treating the sudden gold price drop today below $5,000 as a buying window. Dubai’s 24K gold price also slipped below the Dh600 per gram level on Tuesday, falling to Dh598.50.

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The gold price will drop or rebound scenario now hinges largely on what happens when Chinese markets reopen and how the US-Iran situation develops. Gold price today watchers have seen just how fast sentiment can shift — gold hit a record above $5,595 in late January, then collapsed below $4,500 within days. The gold price will drop concern hasn’t gone away, but neither has the case for recovery.