Whether SpaceX is a good investment or not is one of the most contested questions on Wall Street, and the debate has only sharpened since the company’s June 12, 2026 IPO. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) have fallen roughly sharply from their post IPO peak of $225 and now trade near $115, below the original $135 IPO price. Is SpaceX stock a buy at this level, or is this an overhyped valuation, as one prominent bear argues?
Any SpaceX stock investment made today carries real uncertainty, and analysts still hotly dispute the numbers behind any SpaceX stock forecast for 2030. Answering is SpaceX stock a buy means weighing two very different camps, since SpaceX’s own CEO leads one and a long time short seller of overpriced tech names leads the other.
Also Read: Cathie Wood Bought SpaceX Stock Before the Bounce: Can It Rally More?
SpaceX Stock Investment Outlook, Valuation And 2030 Forecast
Musk Warns Short Sellers Won’t Survive
CEO Elon Musk has pushed back hard against traders betting against the stock, warning short sellers on X that their odds of survival are low. Traders currently hold roughly 17% of SpaceX’s tradable float short, a high figure for a company this size, and Musk has framed the growth story as one skeptics are underestimating.
Elon Musk said:
“I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals.”
Bulls counting on this outcome are effectively betting on both Starlink’s expansion and a successful Starship program, the two pillars behind the SpaceX good investment case that Musk and his supporters keep making. For this camp, a rising SpaceX stock valuation is simply catching up to future revenue.
Whitney Tilson Says The Stock Is Still 10 Times Overvalued
Not everyone agrees. Whitney Tilson, a former hedge fund manager, has called SpaceX the most overvalued large cap stock in market history, even after the recent pullback, and argues the stock still trades at a steep multiple of trailing revenue.
Whitney Tilson said:
“That means it’s still nearly 10 times overvalued.”
Tilson has said publicly that he does not recommend shorting the stock despite his bearish view, and no near term catalyst changes his math. His take adds weight to the argument that today’s SpaceX stock valuation has run well ahead of current fundamentals, regardless of where the SpaceX stock forecast 2030 eventually lands. For Tilson, no SpaceX stock investment makes sense until the price falls much further.
What The Numbers Say About A SpaceX Stock Investment
Strip away the noise, and the fundamentals show a mixed picture. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up 50% year over year, while SpaceX’s newer AI infrastructure unit is growing off a smaller base. Total company revenue reached roughly $18.7 billion in 2025, though the business also burned through billions in cash last year, a detail several analysts have flagged in recent weeks.
At current levels, the stock still trades at dozens of times trailing revenue, a SpaceX stock valuation that bulls justify with Starlink and Starship’s long term promise and bears call unsustainable. Wall Street’s median price target of $225 assumes the bulls are right. Whether that number holds up before or after SpaceX reports second quarter results on August 4 will likely decide whether this turns into a genuine SpaceX good investment story or another lesson in IPO hype, and it will shape the next SpaceX stock investment decision for anyone still on the sidelines.
So is SpaceX stock a buy today? It depends on which side of the Musk-Tilson divide an investor trusts more, and how much volatility they can stomach before SpaceX’s next earnings report reshapes the SpaceX stock forecast 2030 all over again.
