Will Bitcoin go up this year? Right now that question is bouncing around trading desks an Reddit threads alike, and at the time of writing the honest answer leans no, at least not by much. Prediction markets are only giving Bitcoin a 17% shot at $100,000, and the latest Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 numbers lean pretty bearish overall. Bitcoin has been trading somewhere between $58,000 and $62,000 lately, well off its October high near $126,000, and the current Bitcoin price forecast points to more sideways action before anything dramatic happens. So will Bitcoin go up this year in a big way? Maybe, but whether Bitcoin will reach $100k this year still comes down to a small handful of things nobody fully controls.
Source: How Low Can Bitcoin Fall If It Dips Below $59,000?
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now
Before getting into what could push things one way or another, it helps to look at where Bitcoin actually sits at the time of writing. Bitcoin closed out June around $60,000 after starting the year above $93,000, an it hit a fresh 21 month low along the way, so the current Bitcoin price forecast is starting from a pretty weak spot. July has historically been a decent month for Bitcoin though, with green closes in 9 of the last 13 years an an average return north of 7%, which is part of why some traders think will Bitcoin go up this year could still get a more positive answer once the summer plays out.
Spot ETF outflows, a stronger dollar, an a Fed that hasn’t been giving much forward guidance are the three things analysts keep circling back to when they talk about the BTC outlook for 2026 for the months ahead.
What Wall Street Is Saying About A Bitcoin Recovery
Whether Bitcoin will reach $100k this year really depends on who you ask on Wall Street, an right now there isn’t much of a consensus. Standard Chartered has kept its $100,000 year end call in place, and its analysts are betting the current weakness could turn into a buying zone once ETF selling eases up a bit. Citi went the other way though, cutting its 12 month Bitcoin target from $143,000 all the way down to $82,000, and they’re pointing at ETF outflows, weaker investor demand, and slow progress on US crypto legislation as the reasons behind it. Trying to nail down the current Bitcoin price forecast is honestly a bit of a coin flip depending on which bank you’re reading.
James Butterfill, who heads research at CoinShares, had this to say about the back half of 2026:
“More constructive price action likely occurring in the second half of the year.”
That view kind of lines up with what a lot of institutional analysts are saying too, that the first half of 2026 was more of a rebuilding stretch than an actual lost year for Bitcoin. Still, if you’re asking will Bitcoin go up this year based on what these banks think, the answer really depends on which desk you happen to be listening to, and honestly, will Bitcoin go up this year is still more of an open question than a settled one among the big institutions.
The Case For A Bigger Bitcoin Rally
Not everyone is being cautious about the Bitcoin price prediction 2026 outlook though. Iliya Kalchev, an analyst over at crypto exchange Nexo, thinks Bitcoin could climb a lot higher if a few pieces line up right, and his take on whether Bitcoin will reach $100k this year is a lot more upbeat than most.
Kalchev said:
“If financial conditions turn more supportive, through easing policy, a softer dollar, or renewed liquidity expansion, Bitcoin could revisit and exceed prior highs.”
For that kind of move to actually happen, long term holders would need to finish selling, institutional money would need to keep flowing in, an the Fed would basically need to turn friendlier on rates. None of that’s locked in yet, which is also part of why will Bitcoin go up this year keeps getting a different answer depending on the week, and why the Bitcoin outlook 2026 still swings so much from one report to the next.
What Could Drag Bitcoin Lower Instead
There’s also a real downside case here, an it shouldn’t be brushed aside. A hawkish Fed, a dollar that keeps getting stronger, and ETF outflows that just won’t quit have all been weighing on the price, and technical analysts have flagged $53,000 to $57,000 as a realistic support zone if things keep sliding. The Bitcoin outlook 2026 stays pretty shaky at least until the Fed’s late July meeting, since officials haven’t given much forward guidance lately an there’s no fresh economic projections coming before September.
So will Bitcoin go up this year in the end? It really comes down to a small handful of triggers, a softer Fed, ETF inflows picking back up, an some actual progress on crypto legislation in Washington. Until one of those things happens, the current Bitcoin price forecast, an the broader Bitcoin price prediction 2026 picture, both suggest Bitcoin is more likely to stay stuck in a range than make some fast run at six figures. At the time of writing, that’s still the more likely outcome, even if plenty of analysts are holding out hope for something bigger before the year wraps up, and even if will Bitcoin go up this year ends up being answered differently come December.
