Nvidia stock could hit $500 somewhere between 2028 and 2030, according to several long-term forecasts, and right now, trading at $223.47, the stock needs to more than double to get there. That is a real climb, but also a credible one, given what the company has delivered over the past year. Wall Street’s Nvidia stock price prediction models mostly point to a two-to-four year window, assuming AI infrastructure spending keeps running at anything close to its current pace.

NVDA Stock Forecast for 2030 And Price Target

What the Earnings Say

Nvidia just reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with its Data Center segment contributing $75.2 billion. For Q2, the company guided toward $91 billion. Those numbers make the Nvidia stock price target of $500 feel a lot less abstract than it did a year ago.

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia, stated:

“The build-out of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed. Agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value and scaling rapidly across companies and industries.”

Hyperscalers plan to spend a combined $725 billion on AI this year alone. That kind of capital commitment forms the backbone of any serious NVDA stock forecast for 2030, and it also explains why most base-case Nvidia stock price prediction models put $500 somewhere in the 2028 to 2030 range.

Also Read: NVDA Stock Price Target: Wall Street Reacts to Earnings Report

The Math Behind $500 NVDA Price Target

For Nvidia stock to hit $500 from here, analysts model adjusted EPS of around $20 to $25 by 2030, applied to a forward P/E of 25x to 30x. At $223.47 today with a current P/E of 45.63, the market already prices in a lot of growth. One long-term forecast model tracks Nvidia reaching $450 in 2029 and crossing $500 in 2030, which lines up with the more conservative end of the Nvidia stock price target range cited by major financial outlets.

At Nvidia’s GTC conference earlier this year, Jensen Huang also said:

“I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion. In fact, we are going to be short.”

Risks That Could Push the Timeline Out

Nvidia excluded all China Data Center compute revenue from its Q2 outlook, and the company itself puts China’s AI chip market at around $50 billion, a number sitting at zero on its books right now. Rising operating expenses of $7.6 billion this quarter, a higher tax burden, and growing competition from AMD and custom hyperscaler silicon all add real uncertainty to any buy Nvidia stock now thesis beyond the near term.

Anyone weighing whether to buy Nvidia stock now bets on the $500 path staying intact and on no major disruption to AI capital spending between now and 2030. The NVDA stock forecast for 2030 at $500 looks credible on current trajectory, but it asks the company to keep delivering at a level few businesses ever sustain for that long. So far, Nvidia keeps meeting that bar.