With the rising oil crisis and rapidly evolving geopolitical narratives weighing on the world, the US is no exception to this. Per the latest market indicator, the odds of the US entering into a recession have risen gravely, hitting their highest percentage since 2020. Other than that, with economic conditions worsening, it’s becoming harder and harder for Americans to afford new homes and employment opportunities, making matters worse and pushing the economy into deep despair.

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US Recession Odds Are at Record Highs

Per a recent report by the Kobeissi Letter, the US recession odds have now risen to their highest levels since 2020. The possibility of a recession engulfing the US economy has now risen by nearly 48.6%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. Furthermore, this percentage is now up by +15 points in the last 6 months. Per KL, these stats have been derived from leading economic indicators created by Moody.

According to the portal, rising oil price spikes with deteriorating job market narratives are weighing on the US economy, increasing the odds of a possible recession.

“The odds of the US entering recession are rising. The probability of a recession over the next 12 months jumped to 48.6% in February. The highest since the 2020 pandemic. The percentage has risen +15 points over the last 6 months. This is based on the leading economic indicator invented by Moody’s. Which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model. The recent surge was primarily driven by the deteriorating job market, with nearly all economic data softening since the end of 2025. Historically, such a high probability has never occurred outside of recessions. Now with oil prices surging in March. The indicator is expected to breach the key 50% threshold. As every recession since WWII, except the pandemic, was preceded by a spike in oil prices. The longer oil prices remain elevated, the higher the chance of an economic downturn.”

Americans Are Struggling To Find Jobs

The primary fuel of recession fears looking over can be accredited to the deteriorating job market narratives. Per KL, the probability for an average American to find a new job in three months has hit a new low of 44.0%, making it harder for them to find suitable jobs. In addition to this, the US hiring rate is also hitting new lows, sitting at 3%, the lowest since 2020.

“The perceived probability for households to find a new role within 3 months after a job loss is down to 44.0%, the 2nd-lowest on record. This percentage has declined -12 points since October 2024. To put this into context, the 2020 pandemic low was 46.2%, while the 2013 bottom was 45.7%. This comes as hiring activity remains at historically depressed levels.”

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