Tesla stock bearish sentiment keeps growing on Wall Street right now, even after the company posted a mixed Q1 2026 report. Shares closed at $372.80 on April 29, down roughly 15% year-to-date, and JPMorgan is warning investors that the Tesla stock forecast could get a lot worse from here. The Q1 Tesla stock earnings beat on profit but missed on revenue, and that combination did little to change the cautious tone from major analysts tracking the Tesla stock bearish or bullish debate.

Also Read: Amazon Stock: Earnings Strong but UBS Turns Bearish on Cash Flow

Tesla Stock Earnings, Price Target, Forecast And Bearish Outlook

Q1 Numbers Came In Mixed

Tesla reported Q1 2026 revenue of $22.39 billion, up 16% year-over-year, though the figure fell short of the $22.64 billion Wall Street expected. Adjusted EPS landed at $0.41, beating the $0.36 estimate by four cents and marking a 52% jump from the same period last year. Automotive gross margins reached 19.2%, the strongest quarterly reading Tesla posted across all of fiscal 2025, and free cash flow grew 117% to $1.44 billion. Vehicle deliveries, on the other hand, totaled 358,023 units, also below analyst estimates of roughly 366,000 to 370,000.

Operating income climbed 136% to $941 million. Full Self-Driving subscriptions hit 1.28 million, up 51% year-over-year, and services revenue also jumped 42% to $3.75 billion. Capital expenditure for the quarter totaled $2.49 billion, up 67%, though it also came in about 40% below what analysts had modeled, which Wall Street took as a bit of a relief given full-year capex guidance of over $25 billion.

JPMorgan Keeps A Sell On Tesla Stock

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated a Sell rating and kept his TSLA stock price target at $145, a level that would mean a roughly 60% drop from where shares trade right now. His Tesla stock bearish call centers on what he describes as a major disconnect between collapsing near-term expectations and rising share prices and analyst targets. Brinkman stated:

“With expectations for Tesla performance having collapsed for all financial and performance metrics across all time periods through the end of the decade, the +50% rise in Tesla shares and +32% increase in analyst price targets as this collapse has taken place implies an expectation for a sharp pivot to materially better than earlier expected performance in the time beyond this decade.”

Brinkman also had this to say on execution risk:

“Although both technology and execution risk seem substantially less than was once feared, expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution, and competition.”

His $145 TSLA stock price target sits well below the Street average of around $411 to $416, with 23 Buy ratings against eight Sells. Still, Tesla stock has dropped more than 15% this year, which makes it the worst performer in the Magnificent Seven complex so far.

Tesla Stock Forecast Depends On Robotaxi And Optimus Delivering

The bull case for Tesla right now rests almost entirely on products that do not yet generate meaningful revenue at scale. On the Q1 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk spoke to both Optimus and the Robotaxi program. Musk stated:

“Optimus will be our biggest product, not just Tesla’s biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.”

On autonomous vehicle expansion, Musk had this to say:

“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don’t know, a dozen states by the end of this year.”

Unsupervised rides already run in Dallas and Houston. CFO Vaibhav Taneja also confirmed over $25 billion in capex for 2026, covering Cybercab, Megapack 3, the AI5 chip, and an Optimus line targeting 10 million robots per year. Tesla trades at a forward P/E of 182x and a trailing P/E near 340, and the Tesla stock bearish or bullish answer for most analysts depends on whether Q2 deliveries and the v3 Optimus reveal, expected around mid-2026, can show the Tesla stock forecast Wall Street prices in today actually has legs. The Tesla stock bearish tone on the Street reflects exactly that uncertainty right now.