Tesla (TSLA) delivered a lackluster Q4 deliveries report this past week, with the EV giant missing Q4 and full-year 2025 delivery estimates. The company delivered 418,227 autos in the fourth quarter, down 15.6% year-over-year, and significantly below its Q3 deliveries of 497,099 autos. Even worse, several analysts expected Tesla to sell about 441,000 autos, while Tesla’s own forecast projected 422,850 deliveries for Q4 2025. Despite this sub-optimal earnings report, however, TSLA stock is still up nearly 1% on Friday.
Beyond 2025–26, analysts project robust growth in Tesla’s EV deliveries, with a 14.8% jump in FY27, 17% in FY28, and a 28.5% rise in FY29. Should this growth come to fruition, it could set Tesla up for a stronger rally than it saw in 2025, perhaps replicating its late 2024 push.
Tesla’s 2025 in Review: How High Can TSLA go in 2026?
In the past year, Tesla stock has climbed nearly 18%, with most of its gains coming after a crash in price over the Spring season. The stock entered 2025 with bullish momentum in part thanks to Donald Trump’s presidential election win two months before the new year. However, that trend quickly reversed as Tesla’s sales fell and the founder, Elon Musk, became increasingly involved in politics. This time around, analysts are bullish due to the EV maker’s promising potential in the robotics and autonomous driving market.
Furthermore, the stock climb, rather than a drop-off, could also be attributed to Tesla giving a sneak preview of its deliveries earlier this week. On its investor relations site, Tesla posted its own Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 and full-year deliveries, likely to lessen the blow of the official report later in the week. The stock changed little after the preview, and the stock is up 4% in the last 30 days.
Also Read: AI, Cybersecurity, Cloud: Morgan Stanley’s Best Stocks for 2026
With Tesla (TSLA) stock trading near record highs, Wall Street analysts are mixed on the EV maker’s potential in 2026. In December, Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal-weight from Overweight, reversing the firm’s previously bullish position on the stock. Meanwhile, Wedbush currently has the highest price target of $600, while Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald project around $500. However, out of 49 analysts ratings per CNN Business, 41% rate TSLA a buy, 37% a hold, and the remaining 22% a sell. The lowest forecast for TSLA recognized by the CNN platform is a bearish $120 forecast, which would imply an over 70% crash from current prices.
