Stock market today is climbing on a wave of optimism, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both pushing higher after a strong week on Wall Street, and Dow Jones futures also holding right near record highs as traders wait on the Fed minutes due out Wednesday. The Dow itself closed in on 53,000 last week, a level it has never actually touched before, and that run higher came even as chipmakers stumbled and money rotated into other corners of the market.

Analysts are pointing to financials, healthcare, and industrials as the sectors carrying the load right now, while semiconductors take a breather after months of leading the charge. Overseas, Asia-Pacific markets traded a bit mixed on Monday, and the Japanese yen sat near a 40-year low against the dollar, which just adds another layer for traders to watch alongside the domestic action. At the time of writing, the bigger question hanging over everything is what the Federal Reserve’s June minutes, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, will actually say about the path for rates. And for anyone tracking the stock market today, this week could end up setting the tone for where things head heading into the back half of summer.

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S&P 500 Futures, Nasdaq Outlook And Fed Minutes Preview

Futures Climb As Wall Street Builds On Last Week’s Gains

Right now, in the stock market today, futures jumped Sunday night, an extension of a rally that had already pushed the Dow into record territory. Dow Jones futures added 89 points, or 0.17%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures climbed 0.98%. Last week the Dow rose almost 2%, the S&P 500 added 1.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.1%, even as chipmakers had a rough stretch and money moved into financials, healthcare, and also industrials.

Mark Newton, head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, had this to say:

“The broadening in sector rotation is a big positive, with Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials all closing at new weekly all-time highs this week and more than offsetting the consolidation in Semis.”

Newton thinks the S&P 500 can reach 8,000 by mid-August, which sits about 7% above where the benchmark closed last week, at 7,483.24. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, at the time of writing, had dropped 3.2% over the week, its second losing week in a row, as investors trimmed chip exposure even while the rest of the stock market today kept grinding higher.

Fed Minutes Take Center Stage For The Stock Market Today

The bigger story for the stock market today, though, sits in Washington. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the first one under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, come out Wednesday, and traders are watching closely for any clue on where rates go next, especially after S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures put together such a strong run.

Market veteran Ed Yardeni said:

“Fed funds futures now imply 1.5 rate hikes over the next 12 months, a sharp reversal from the deep rate cut pricing that dominated the past three years. The minutes should indicate how much of that repricing the committee actually endorses.”

What It Means For Traders This Week

Beyond the Fed minutes, the stock market today also has to reckon with moves overseas. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% and the Topix added 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4%, and China’s CSI 300 gained 0.2%. The Japanese yen traded at 161.54 per dollar, not far off last week’s 40-year low, while South Korea’s won slipped to 1,532.82 per dollar as investors weighed AI trades against the wait for Dow Jones futures and, really, the wider direction of the index.

Crude also stayed mixed after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by 188,000 barrels a day in August, its fifth straight monthly increase. Brent futures sat flat at $72.12 a barrel and WTI ticked up 0.20% to $68.80, a backdrop traders are watching alongside the stock market today for any sign of inflation pressure ahead of the Fed minutes.

Heading into the rest of the week, the stock market today keeps a cautiously upbeat tone, and that’s a fair way to put it. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are pointing higher, Dow Jones futures are holding near record levels, and the Fed minutes remain the one event that could decide whether this rally keeps its footing or stalls out. Traders are also keeping an eye on deal headlines, such as Lockheed Martin’s reported pursuit of naval defense group Ultra Maritime in a deal valued near $3.5 billion, for hints on where capital heads next.