A main economic indicator is flashing signs of a recession and has historically been accurate for the last five decades. The indicator called the Heavy Truck Index which tracks the performance of the 10-month moving average of heavy truck sales is showing signs of a downturn after its recent peak.

Guilherme Tavares, the CEO of i3 Invest wrote that every time this occurred, the economy has slipped into a recession. He shared a chart on X indicating that the US might be less than three months away from a downturn. His prediction comes at a time when Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 index hit new highs this year but are facing a bloodbath after Trump’s renewal of tariffs.

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Recession Likely To Arrive Before October 2025

Tavares wrote that heavy truck sales are a reliable indicator that highlights the chances of a recession. The downturn typically signals a decline in business investment and weaker confidence in the supply of daily essentials in the markets. The prediction comes even after the US administration and President Donald Trump rubbished the claims of a global economic slowdown.

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“Zero percent chance of recession? Despite an economy driven by massive stimulus and debt, the Great Heavy Truck Index is signaling caution ahead. According to it, there is a high probability we’ll enter a recession in the coming months. Although today’s economic dynamics are different, whenever the index has moved too far and begun to decline, it has historically signaled a shift in the cycle and a potential recession. Is this time different?” he wrote on X.

However, on the brighter side, several countries are reaching out to the US to drop duties on goods and exports. The move could give the US an upper hand in trade with a new negotiating power over other nations. Therefore, the chances of a recession are not as serious as before.