After Wednesday’s 5% drop, a lot of investors are now asking whether Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is still worth buying. The stock closed at $191.82, down from a session high of $213.80, and it also marked the company’s first red day since the IPO on June 12 — though shares still sit about 42% above the $135 offering price. Whether SpaceX stock is worth buying right now really comes down to one tension that hasn’t gone away: a company with $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue currently trades at close to $2.52 trillion, or roughly 135 times last year’s sales.
The SpaceX stock price prediction debate is tied almost entirely to Starlink and xAI, with CEO Elon Musk publicly targeting $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. SpaceX valuation risk, though, is also significant for anyone considering an entry at these levels, and with the SpaceX IPO stock drop now on the books, the SpaceX stock forecast 2030 case is getting a harder look from both bulls and skeptics.
SpaceX Stock Forecast, IPO Drop, Valuation And Buy Signals Today
What Triggered The First Post-IPO Drop
Wednesday’s selloff came a day after SPCX options started trading, which is also when the stock’s first real bearish tools became available to the market. Nearly 1 million call contracts changed hands on day one, a lot for a stock with only around 640 million shares in the float. The arrival of put options opened a two-sided market for the first time, and that shift showed up fast in the price action.
Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, put it plainly on X after a period of deliberate restraint on the stock:
“I have resisted commenting on SPCX as it acts more like a meme stock than one driven by fundamentals.”
Black also noted that the run-up happened under conditions where selling was nearly impossible: IPO lockups, no shares available to borrow for short selling, and no puts until this week. That dynamic, he said, “may be ending.” And once that artificial scarcity clears, the question of whether SPCX is worth buying at all starts looking very different.
The float issue adds another layer. SpaceX floated only about 4 to 5% of its shares in the IPO, leaving the vast majority in insider hands. Grasso Global CEO Steve Grasso flagged this directly:
“Even with the bump, SPCX is working off a sliver of float next to its peers.”
By comparison, nearly all shares of Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia sit in public hands. SpaceX also joins the Nasdaq-100 later this month, which traders expect to bring $7 to $10 billion in passive buying before any lockup shares hit the market — a near-term tailwind that could keep the stock swinging hard in either direction.
Also Read: SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: What $1,000 Could Be Worth in 2027
The SpaceX Valuation Risk And The 2030 Revenue Target
At current levels, the fundamentals alone don’t make a strong case for buying. Revenue grew 33% in 2025 to $18.7 billion, and the 2030 target Musk has set would require that figure to grow more than 50 times over in four years. Musk has also said:
“And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than [$1 trillion] in 2031.”
Not everyone sees the numbers as credible at these levels. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, was direct after the IPO:
“Trump’s SEC greenlit an IPO with numbers analysts have called ‘nonsensical.’ The world will get its first trillionaire while Americans across the country are scraping together every dollar to save for retirement.”
CFRA Research senior analyst Keith Snyder also told CNBC he remained skeptical about whether SpaceX deserves a $1.77 trillion valuation, the original IPO figure, let alone the $2.52 trillion it reached at the time of writing. SpaceX valuation risk, in other words, draws scrutiny from both political and financial corners of the market.
Trading research firm AgentSmyth flagged put activity building in September contracts as a signal of what traders expect once more supply hits the market and the post-IPO hype fades:
“This is where [trading] whales stop financing [SpaceX] upside and start funding [stock] absorption.”
Is SpaceX Stock Worth Buying Right Now?
So is SPCX actually worth buying right now? Analyst 12-month price targets range from $63 to $310, with the average sitting near $188, a touch below Wednesday’s close. Momentum traders may find some support from the Nasdaq-100 inclusion event, but longer-term investors could get a better entry point once lockup expirations begin in August and earnings give a clearer picture of where the business actually stands. Wednesday’s drop could also turn out to be the first in a series — the SpaceX IPO stock drop pattern tends to repeat as supply comes online.
The valuation gap between today’s fundamentals and the SpaceX stock forecast 2030 scenario is still enormous, and that SpaceX valuation risk is not going to disappear quickly. Whether the stock is worth buying depends entirely on how much of Musk’s 2030 SpaceX stock price prediction you’re willing to take on faith.
