How low will SpaceX go before the stock actually settles down? That is the question sitting behind almost every stock forecast floating around right now. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12, and it also spiked past $225 within days of trading. Since then the stock has cooled off into the $149 to $162 range, which is still well above the debut price but a long way under that early spike. And that gap is exactly why a SpaceX stock price prediction under $100 keeps getting mentioned, even by people who are not otherwise bearish on the name.
Also Read: How Much Is a $5,000 SpaceX IPO Investment Worth Today?
SpaceX Stock Forecast and the Key Risks Behind a Drop Below $100
Wall Street’s own numbers on SPCX spread out in a way that is honestly a bit unusual, and that spread is a big part of why how low will SpaceX go keeps coming back up in conversation. Morningstar’s fair value sits way down at $63 a share, built off a full discounted cash flow read on SpaceX’s projected cash flows. On the other side you have Wedbush and also Morgan Stanley, who have floated targets as high as $300, leaning mostly on Starlink’s growth an on a possible re-rating of the AI side of the business.
Argus started coverage at Hold, and had this to say:
“years” before multiples at “normal levels”
That short line is basically the whole bear case in a nutshell, and it is one more reason a SPCX stock target under $100 has not been fully ruled out by everyone covering this stock.
Spcx Stock Price Prediction Tied to a Rough History for Big IPOs
Big tech IPOs have a pretty rough track record early on, and that history feeds right into today’s stock price prediction. Truist Financial looked at 30 major tech IPOs over the last 14 years and found an average year-one drawdown of 55%, even though 43% of that group were actually trading higher six months out. Apply that same math to SpaceX and you land somewhere around $101.50, which is basically sitting right on top of the $100 line everyone keeps watching. At the time of writing, that is still the number most of this how low will SpaceX go debate keeps circling back to.
Spacex Stock Below $100: What the Lockup Schedule Means for Supply
SpaceX sold only around 555.6 million shares in the IPO, which is under 5% of total shares outstanding, and the rest stays locked up for now. More shares become eligible for sale shortly after SpaceX releases its first quarterly report as a public company, which is expected around Aug. 6. Once that extra supply hits the market, SpaceX stock below $100 stops being such a fringe idea, especially if buying demand does not keep up with all the new shares coming loose. This is also probably the single biggest near-term risk anyone tracking how low will SpaceX go should keep an eye on.
SPCX Stock Target Levels and the Valuation Gap
Based on 2025 revenue, SPCX was trading at a price to sales ratio above 100, and that is a multiple almost no company manages to hold onto for very long. Any SPCX stock target near where the stock sits now basically assumes SpaceX keeps growing Starlink and its AI business at a pace that very few companies have ever pulled off. CFRA rates the stock a Sell, and its argument is that the current price already bakes in close to flawless execution for years down the road. It is also worth pointing out that a SpaceX stock target this rich leaves very little room for anything to go wrong.
So how low will spacex go from here probably comes down to what happens once the August lockup releases actually hit, and also how the next earnings report lands. A spacex stock forecast under $100 is not really the consensus view among analysts right now, but the thin float, the stretched valuation, and the shaky history of mega IPOs all keep that scenario on the table for the rest of 2026. And an spacex stock forecast that ignores those three things is probably missing the bigger picture.
