Tesla stock fell 5.4% on Thursday after the company reported Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles, missing Wall Street’s consensus of roughly 365,645 units by about 7,600. Production reached 408,386 vehicles, leaving an inventory surplus of more than 50,000 units and raising demand concerns. Energy storage deployments came in at 8.8 GWh, down 38% from Q4 2025’s record 14.2 GWh. The Goldman Sachs price target for Tesla TSLA was cut following the report, as was Truist’s, with both firms holding their Hold ratings.

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Tesla Made 50,000 More Cars Than It Sold and Energy Storage Dropped 38%

What Drove the Delivery Miss

The delivery shortfall points to a demand problem, not a production one. With the $7,500 federal EV tax credit gone at the end of 2025, a lot of buyers moved their purchases into Q4, and Q1 ended up paying the price for that. Musk’s increasingly polarizing public presence has also been flagged as a factor hurting sales in Western markets. On top of that, Tesla quietly wound down Model S and X production during the quarter, repurposing those lines for Optimus robot manufacturing.

Goldman Sachs and Truist Cut Tesla Stock Targets

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney cut his price target on Tesla to $375 from $405, holding his rating at Hold. He pointed to the tax credit expiration as the main driver of the year-over-year US sales drop, though he also noted that some Model S and X demand held up heading into the end of their production run.

Truist also trimmed its target on the stock. Truist Securities analyst William Stein had this to say about TSLA stock:

“The first-quarter auto deliveries and energy storage deployments lagged the Street’s and Truist’s estimates. The company did not provide any updates on the more important aspects, AI projects and new vehicles.”

Stein also stated:

“Investors should focus more on AI projects, especially Tesla’s FSD technology. Tesla’s AI developments are more important than its auto deliveries for long-term cash generation and stock performance.”

Where Tesla Stock Stands With Wall Street

If you look at what Wall Street actually thinks about Tesla right now, the honest answer is: it depends who you ask. Of the 31 analysts tracking the stock, 13 are bullish, 11 are sitting on the fence, and 7 think you should sell. The average price target works out to $394.34, which is about 9.4% above where Tesla closed on Thursday — decent upside, but nothing that suggests the Street is rushing to pile in.

The next real test comes April 22, when Tesla drops its Q1 earnings. Delivery numbers will be part of the conversation, but analysts have been pretty clear that FSD and Tesla’s AI projects are what actually matter for where the stock goes long term. The quarterly vehicle count is almost secondary at this point.