Coinbase (COIN) stock rose 17% in the opening hours of trading on Friday, despite missing estimates for its Q4 2025 earnings. Coinbase missed estimates with a major decline in revenue for its Q4 results late Thursday. The exchange reported a loss of $2.49 per share, down from earnings of $4.68 per share last year, to miss FactSet’s expectations for earnings of $1 per share.
On an adjusted basis, earnings fell to 66 cents per share, ahead of estimates for 56 cents per share. Revenue tumbled 22% to $1.78 billion, slightly below views for $1.8 billion. Despite the earnings miss, Coinbase (COIN) stock is actually up on Friday. This is strongly linked to how CEO Brian Armstrong spoke on the Q4 earnings call, reassuring shareholders that all is well.
Armstrong, during the earnings call, maintained that the company and the crypto industry are still in a good position, despite the recent downturn. “We’ve been through cycles like this many times at Coinbase. And adoption continues to grow, and regulatory clarity is on the horizon, and I’m more bullish than ever,” he said. “Moreover, we’ve successfully diversified the business where stablecoins, subscription and services revenue, and now trading of other asset classes like stocks, prediction markets, and commodities, means our revenue is less correlated to crypto price fluctuations.”
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Furthermore, Coinbase expects to generate subscription and services sales between $550 million and $630 million for Q1 2026. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the exchange to generate $747 million in revenue for the segment. Coinbase also got a positive call on Wall Street, reassuring that the earnings miss isn’t the end-all, be-all. Benchmark analysts said that, despite the miss, critical indicators remained intact. Those included doubled trading volume and market share in 2025, the scaling of Coinbase’s derivatives platform, and ongoing stablecoin adoption.