Amazon stock has been a real source of debate on Wall Street lately, and the numbers make it pretty easy to see why. AMZN gained just 22% over the last five years while the S&P 500 returned around 87% over the same stretch — and that Amazon stock vs S&P 500 gap has a lot of investors wondering whether the market is mispricing one of the world’s most dominant companies. So is Amazon a buy right now, or does Wall Street have a point?

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Amazon Stock Wall Street Debate As AI Spending And AWS Surge

The $200 Billion Problem — And Why Jassy Isn’t Losing Sleep Over It

Wall Street turned cautious on Amazon stock after Q4 earnings, and the reason came down to one number: $200 billion in planned capital expenditures for 2026, up from $132 billion the year before. Since Amazon’s 2025 operating cash flow came in at $140 billion, the company looks set to spend more than it generates this year. That’s a big part of why Amazon stock is down heading into 2026, and also why some investors have been stepping back from AMZN for now.

CEO Andy Jassy pushed back on the skepticism directly on the earnings call. Jassy stated:

“This isn’t some sort of quixotic, top-line grab. We have confidence that these investments will yield strong returns on invested capital. We’ve done that with our core AWS business. I think that will very much be true here as well.”

AWS grew 24% year-over-year last quarter to $35.6 billion — its fastest quarterly growth in 13 quarters — and Jassy told investors the company keeps monetizing capacity as fast as it goes online. He also said:

“Customers really want AWS for core and AI workloads. And we are monetizing capacity as fast as we can install it.”

What The Amazon Stock Target Says About Wall Street’s Actual View

Wall Street’s current read on Amazon stock runs notably hotter than the price action suggests. At the time of writing, the Amazon stock target from 43 analysts sits at an average of $279.88, implying about 33% upside from the last traded price of $210. Targets range from $175 on the low end to $325 at the high. Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak reiterated a Buy at $300 on March 1. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan also kept his Buy rating with a $280 target. Wells Fargo held its Buy at $304. Out of 43 ratings, 40 are Buy, 3 are Hold, and not a single analyst on Wall Street has a Sell on AMZN right now.

There are also some macro headwinds worth keeping in mind. Oil futures recently surged past $100 per barrel, and Amazon stock felt it almost immediately — shares fell 2.3% in extended trading. The advertising segment generated $21.3 billion in Q4 2025 alone, and that revenue stream tends to shrink fast when consumer spending slows. That’s the other side of the Amazon stock vs S&P 500 story that doesn’t always get enough attention.

Is Amazon A Buy Right Now?

So is Amazon a buy? Most of Wall Street thinks so — and the Amazon stock target consensus makes that pretty clear. Amazon stock, according to 40 out of 43 analysts, has more room to run. Operating income hit a record $85 billion over the trailing 12 months, and once the current capex cycle runs its course, free cash flow should start closing back in on those earnings levels. For anyone still asking why Amazon stock is down while the fundamentals keep improving, the answer right now seems to be short-term fear rather than long-term logic.